Will the economy be in recession in 2023?

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More recently, Bloomberg Economics economist Scott Johnson predicted that 2023 will be one of the slowest years for the global economy since 1993, with a global growth rate of just 2.4% instead of the previously forecast 3.2%, mainly due to the ongoing energy shock triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the world economy is facing one of its worst years in 30 years. Johnson believes that the economic trends of the world’s major economies will diverge: the euro zone will start with a recession in 2023, and the United States will end that year with a recession. This is similar to our analysis and observation. We are at the forefront of the transportation logistics industry, and our perception of market changes in ocean freight, air freight and ground freight may be a little ahead of other industries.

The World Bank also believes that the global economy will grow by 2.7% in 2023, down from 3.2% in 2022 and 6% in 2021. The World Bank’s “Global Economic Prospects” updated in October 2022 predicted that global economic growth in 2023 may slow more than previously expected.

According to the analysis of Bloomberg, 2022 is the year when the Federal Reserve and other major central banks have tightened monetary policy, and 2023 may see divergence in the paths of various central banks. Johnson analyzed, “In the U.S., as wage growth will keep inflation above target, we think the Fed will move towards a terminal interest rate of 5% and will keep it at that level until the first quarter of 2024.” Quarter”.

Johnson’s outlook on China’s economy is similar to the expectations of some domestic scholars and institutions. Some Chinese economists also said that the Chinese economy is expected to grow by about 5% in 2023. Freighnet Express believes that it will be difficult for China’s economy to achieve a growth rate of 5%. The current outbreak of the epidemic in China has not fully prepared, and the epidemic has a great impact on logistics, including ocean freight, air freight and ground freight. The impact is hard to underestimate.