If Trump is elected, what impact will it have on the international shipping industry?

If Donald Trump is re-elected, the international shipping industry could experience substantial shifts due to his stance on trade and energy. His proposal to increase tariffs on all imports, especially from China, would escalate import costs, encouraging U.S. companies to seek alternative sourcing. This may initially boost demand for container shipping due to a rush to import before tariffs hit, but could later cause a slowdown as companies adjust their supply chains​.

Trump’s energy policies would favor increased U.S. oil production, which could positively impact international shipping for oil tankers and LNG carriers. Unlike current restrictions on federal drilling and LNG projects under Biden, Trump’s approach would likely expand U.S. energy exports, boosting tanker demand for long-haul routes to Asia. This shift would increase shipping volumes in the energy sector while keeping freight rates high in the near term​.

Geopolitics would also play a critical role in international shipping under Trump, especially with possible increased tensions with China and Europe. New tariffs and trade barriers could disrupt established shipping routes, affecting both volumes and rates across the industry. Additionally, Trump’s foreign policy could shift shipping security strategies in sensitive regions, such as the Red Sea, by intensifying military presence, potentially stabilizing shipping lanes but increasing geopolitical risks for commercial vessels​.

In summary, Trump’s re-election would bring immediate changes in international shipping demand patterns, creating short-term gains but raising concerns about the long-term stability of trade routes and shipping rates.